Below is an excerpt from the Lap Count newsletter, posted with permission. Kyle Merber’s Lap Count newsletter both entertains and enlightens fans about athletes and happenings in our sport.
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From the Lap Count Newsletter
“In my mind, Sinclaire Johnson has reestablished herself as the favorite to win USAs, which is saying something.”
No matter how many times we go through the rigmarole that is the competitive racing calendar, it is so easy to forget just how long of a year it is – partly because it sometimes feels like it never stops and never formally started! Well, somehow, it was only one year ago that Sinclaire Johnson matched every move thrown at her at the US Championships with ease, en route to the national title. But she wasn’t done yet. Speaking with her after her sixth place finish at Worlds, I sorta loved how dissatisfied she was with the performance – her first global championship. It felt like this was the beginning of a long run of similarly impressive races.
And 2023 started off promisingly. Johnson’s indoor season was highlighted by a demonstration of newfound strength, a 3000m win in 8:37.83. Since then it’d been a quiet spring until a promising double victory in Eugene last week with an 800m (2:01) and 1500m (4:05). Then at the Stumptown Twilight meet, Sinclaire ran 4:00.77 gliding away from the pack, and giving us all good reason to believe she’ll qualify for another Worlds team, at least.
In my mind, Johnson has reestablished herself as the favorite to win USAs, which is saying something.
There are currently six American athletes who have run 4:01.55 or faster this season: Cory McGee, Josette Andrews, Sinclaire Johnson, Nikki Hiltz, Emily MacKay, and Helen Schlactenhaufen.
Then there is the wild card… Athing Mu is entered in the 1500 as well, with her 4:16.06 personal best from 2021. If you are wondering… how? There’s precedent in allowing high-profile athletes to appeal their way into events that they have otherwise not qualified for. I always think of Alan Webb getting into the Olympic Trials 5000m in 2012 with a 13:49 entry mark, while a teammate of mine was in Eugene sitting on the bubble and praying. Ultimately, their 13:38 did not get in… (Yeah, 13:38 used to be a fringe Trials time, but we also used to walk six miles each way, uphill both of them, to get to school!)
While I’m generally for crystal clear qualifying protocols, letting the defending World Champion in the 800m compete up one distance is hardly an egregious decision and is well within the bounds of the bylaws that hardly anybody ever reads.
So assuming Mu is in the field, the question then becomes how do you beat her? In reality, it probably doesn’t matter. Athing has a silver medal at worst in Budapest if she runs the 800m and a silver medal at absolute best if she runs the 1500 significantly better than any of us could ever hope for. But it’s still a US title on the line!
All of the true 1500m runners are hurt by the absence of Elle Purrier-St. Pierre, who has historically been the one willing to grind everyone down from the front. And that’s what worked at Millrose in 2022! Mu ended up dropping out at 1400m, but rewatching that race makes her winning in Eugene feel more plausible – she’s had 1.5 years to find another 109 meters!
If I were Sinclaire, then I’d sit tight and see if things are honest until halfway through. If they are, then I’d just wait. If they are not, then I’d start pushing!
