Below is an excerpt from the Lap Count newsletter, posted with permission. Kyle Merber’s Lap Count newsletter both entertains and enlightens fans about athletes and happenings in our sport.
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From the Lap Count Newsletter
“So hear me out: maybe Eliud Kipchoge didn’t lose. Maybe Evans Chebet won?”
The 127th Boston Marathon was supposed to be The Eliud Kipchoge Show, but that would have been too predictable. Instead, the script wound up looking more like that of The Truman Show – cameras following the every move of a man who for the first time in years looked like a regular person.
Before diving deeper into the details of Monday, let’s make one thing clear: one race does not erase a legacy. Kipchoge is the greatest of all time. The difference between winning 17 of 20 career marathons rather than 18 of 20 doesn’t change or undermine that fact.
Okay. We got that out of the way. So what happened? What led to the GOAT finishing in 6th place, 2:09:23 — the slowest mark of his career?
Maybe it was the hills? That was a point of concern for pundits coming in. The majority of Kipchoge’s career accomplishments over the past 20 years came on the track or pancake flat courses. I’m not buying the hill theory. It’s just hard to believe that someone who trains in the mountains of Kenya would struggle with hills.
Maybe it’s age? After all, Father Time stops for no one and Kipchoge is now 38. Plus, in terms of wear and tear on the ol’ body, he has been running at an elite level since 2003 when he ran 12:52 to win the World Championship 5000m. A fair argument, but one I’ll counter with this: it’s only been seven months since he set the world record, going 2:01:09 in Berlin. This isn’t Interstellar – people don’t age that suddenly.
Maybe it was the missed bottle? Nope. That’s not how fueling works. Just because you miss one bottle doesn’t mean you get dropped two minutes later. In hindsight, his failing dexterity was probably hinting at what was to come, rather than causing it.
Maybe it was the race tactics? There are no rabbits or lasers in Boston, and Kipchoge got plenty of pacing help in Tokyo, Berlin, London, Chicago, and the INEOS 1:59 Challenge. Then again, there are no pacers at the Olympics… which he has won… twice. Kipchoge did run more aggressively at Boston than many would have anticipated. He was towards the front pushing the pace for much of that opening downhill. He hit 5k in 14:17 and kept his foot on the gas past the half split in 1:02:19. Perhaps a more conservative approach – you know, hiding in the pack and making it through 16 miles unscathed, something like that – would have been a more suitable strategy. But again. I’m not sold on this theory either. It’s not the craziest idea for the man who has consistently proven that he can run 26 miles faster than anyone else to try and keep things honest. And others with similar splits held on better.
Then maybe it was something else entirely? On Tuesday during a conversation with the media, Kipchoge had the opportunity to answer some questions and there was plenty of speculation about what went wrong. He pointed to a pain in his leg that he started to suffer from at mile 21. That’s marathoning, baby! (And for what it’s worth, my legs also hurt when someone else runs faster than I’m able to.)
The fact that Kipchoge losing is such a rarity that it’s viewed as some great mystery to be solved is a testament to his incredible track record.
So hear me out: maybe Eliud Kipchoge didn’t lose. Maybe Evans Chebet won?
It is scary to say this out loud, but Evans Chebet is – right now, at least – the best marathoner in the world. It seems like such a blasphemous thing to suggest, however, the facts seem to back it up. And that’s why we race – to figure out who is faster. Are we going to selectively diminish certain results because they don’t fit the narrative? Evans Chebet is also faster than Gabriel Geay, Benson Kipruto, and everyone else who ran on Monday. That’s the point.
Chebet has won six of his last seven marathons, including two in Boston, and one in New York. But Evans has also proven that he can run fast, having won Valencia in 2020 in a personal best of 2:03:00.
Head-to-head is what matters most, and although Kipchoge ran fast in Berlin, he didn’t really beat anyone of note. I suppose there are two ways of looking at a five-minute margin of victory; it was either really THAT dominant or most of the appearance fees went to one man. Tokyo was a better win as it came against Amos Kipruto (London Champ) and Tamirat Tola (World Champ), but both of those men have multiple losses on their resume the past few years, which Chebet does not.
If you can accept the premise that Chebet is now the best marathoner in the world then stop looking for other reasons why Kipchoge was beaten. The story should be that the crown was earned, not stolen.
Now the next challenge is on Adidas: how do you make Evans Chebet a household name like Nike was able to with Kipchoge? It starts with more winning.
Without that, the inspirational quotes, the monk-like lifestyle, and the stoic approach to becoming the fastest to ever do it becomes meaningless. Just because it is part of a carefully cultivated marketing and PR campaign doesn’t make it less genuine. Although, I admittedly have never liked Kipchoge more than when I watched him get frustrated with reporters. He is not happy about Monday, and it’d be foolish to suggest he won’t be back.
We knew Kipchoge wasn’t limited. It was the human part that was doubtful, until now.
