Editor’s Note: After reading, make sure to join us in a fun pick-em game based on these odds. The winner will receive a $100 Running Warehouse gift card and second place will receive a $25 Running Warehouse gift card. Read the rules and complete your entries either in the form at the bottom of this post, or at this link: https://forms.gle/L5ew3B2DY23uP4zAA
With Pre Classic coming up this weekend I thought this would be the perfect time to check out some gambling odds. After looking through all the betting sites I could, I found…nothing. Still no wagering available for one the premier track events of the season. But I will not be deterred! I am a huge track fan and have worked in sports betting over the past 13 years so who better than me to come up with some totally made up, not at all official and completely unbettable for this weekend.
For those unfamiliar with how betting odds work, you will see a lot of minuses and pluses. The minuses are the favorites, and the pluses are the underdogs. The bigger the minus is, the bigger the favorite and the less money you will win. The pluses of course, are the exact opposite.
That sentence was confusing, let’s do an example:
If the odds for a wager are -150, that means you would have to bet $150 to win $100.
You would get back a total of $250 because you always get the winnings plus the
money back from your wager when you win.
On the other side, if the odds are +130, for every $100 you bet you would win $130 and
get back a total of $230.
Friday, May 27th – World Record Bets
Women’s Two Mile (8:58.58) – Francine Niyonsaba
- Yes -150
- No +130
Having anyone as a favorite to set a world record feels like a foolish thing to do but so does betting against Niyonsaba right now. She just took down the 1500m GOAT Faith Kipyegon in the 3k two weeks ago AND ran the second fastest 2 mile ever last year AND her PB in the 3k basically translates to tying the world record AND this is only her second season running these distances after being forced to move up from the 800m. In general, it’s always a good idea to bet against a world record happening, unless someone had to write a run-on sentence stating all the reasons it’s going to happen.
Women’s 5,000m (14:06.62) – Letesenbet Gidey
- Yes +220
- No -250
Gidey just sets records and I’m not talking area or soil records; She just sets world records. After taking down the 5000m WR in 2020 she decided that wasn’t enough and set the 10,000m and Half-Marathon world records in 2021. So why are the odds so much worse than Niyonsaba’s? Well first off, she hasn’t run a 5,000m since April 11th last year. Her last race on the track was a disappointing (for her) bronze at the 10,000m Olympic Final in August and the only race she has run since then is a half-marathon world record in October. Now, usually when 2 of your last 3 races are world records that is a good sign and she is only 24 but…. wait, what was my argument against her again?
Men’s 5,000m (12:35.36) – Joshua Cheptegei
- Yes +180
- No -200
While everyone was working on their sourdough starters and watching Tiger King, Cheptegei had maybe the most productive 2020 of anyone when he set the 5,000m and 10,000m world records. Any world record is special but breaking two Bekele records should earn you even more points. He won the gold medal in the 5,000m last year but didn’t run anything else I would deem “crazy fast” until he ran a 26:49 road 10k in March this year. Just having that result pushes his odds slightly better than Gidey to me but I would still bet against 12:35.
Saturday, May 28th – Race Bets
Men’s 100m
- Christian Coleman +150
- Trayvon Bromell +200
- Fred Kerley +250
- Erriyon Knighton +400
- Noah Lyles +800
- Andre De Grasse +800
- Kenny Bednarek +1200
- Field +3000
Really bummed Lamont Jacobs dropped out of this race and I might still need to be convinced that he isn’t some elaborate shared dream we all had at the Olympics last year, but this field is still loaded with past and future championship medalists. Coleman still has to be the favorite but it’s far from the foregone conclusion it used to be. Bromell has run in the 9.7s multiple times the past couple years and Fred Kerley is the silver medalist and has already run a bunch this year. Knighton is a total wildcard, he has never run a legal sub 10.00 and just turned 18 in January but the guy just ran 19.49 a few weeks ago, who knows what he’s capable of.
Bowerman Mile
- Jakob Ingebrigtsen +120
- Abel Kipsang +180
- Timothy Cheruiyot +250
- Cole Hocker +800
- Ollie Hoare +1000
- Field +3000
Ingebrigtsen, Kipsang and Cheruiyot could be the best and most competitive 1, 2, 3 in any event this year…if Ingebrigtsen doesn’t continue to get better. He’s already the Olympic champion, indoor world record holder and ran the fastest mile in 15 years at this race last year. And he’s 21. The fact that he isn’t a heavy favorite to win this race shows you how good Kipsang and Cheruiyot are or how bad I am at setting odds. Cheruiyot ended his year by beating Jakob after the Olympics and Kipsang has already beaten Cheruiyot this year and is trying to enter the gold medal conversation with the other two.
Women’s 100m
- Elaine Thompson-Herah -600
- Field +500
There are seven of the nine Olympic finalists in this race and it’s still Elaine Thompson-Herah against the field. That’s what happens when you have the greatest year in the history of the event (and when Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce is running the 200m). Something has to go wrong for her or very right for someone else for her not to win this race. Shericka Jackson is the best bet for 2nd but Sha’Carri Richardson might be the biggest threat to win, but she’s still more likely to finish last than first…don’t tell her I said that.
Women’s 1500
- Faith Kipyegon -350
- Laura Muir +250
- Gudaf Tsegay +300
- Gabriela Debues-Stafford +500
- Freweyni Hailu +800
- Elle Purrier St. Pierre +1000
- Field +2500
Do you know the last time Faith Kipyegon lost a 1500m to someone not named Sifan Hassan? September 1st, 2016. 2016!!!! She’s the GOAT and the only reason this isn’t higher is because she’s only ran once this year (a really good 3k) and this field is really good. Muir and Tsegay are the 12th and 14th fastest women in history at this distance and could probably be a few spots higher if certain countries weren’t so fast in the 80’s and 90’s for some reason…
Let’s Play a Game
Based on the above odds, join us in a fun pick-em game. Submit your picks either in the below form or at this link: https://forms.gle/L5ew3B2DY23uP4zAA
Loading…
