Below is an excerpt from the Lap Count newsletter, posted with permission. Kyle Merber’s Lap Count newsletter which both entertains and enlightens fans about athletes and happenings in our sport.
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From the Lap Count Newsletter
The first events of Prefontaine Classic weekend will be the most important to most of you reading at home — at 7:30pm PT on Friday, the meet will double as the USATF Championships for 10000m. As someone who has theorized about how good of an idea this is, I am invested in its success. There are a couple reasons I love this concept: primarily this gives athletes more time to recover ahead of Worlds, but it allows the fans and media to give undivided attention to a single (or two) races. The thing that makes the 10000m exciting is the plot and that needs to be developed, otherwise it kinda sucks.
Women’s Race
Let’s begin with the women.
The Olympic Trials champion, Emily Sisson, has opted for the roads despite her dominant performance last year in the heat. In her absence clear favorite in the field is Bowerman Track Club’s Elise Cranny, whose solo 30:14 at Sound Running in March just narrowly missed the American Record. Since then Cranny has only raced once, which was a 1500m victory at Mt. Sac in 4:08 — which is basically three planets away from the impressiveness of her 10000m. But that doesn’t matter — she is healthy. Watching her now, it’s hard to believe she was just fourth at the Trials (although she won the 5000m).
Editor’s Note: Elise Cranny has since decided not to race the 10k to focus on the 5k
Another Olympian from last year’s team to keep an eye on is OAC’s Alicia Monson. Indoors she won the Millrose 3000m and qualified for the World Championships in the event, but Monson has not run a 10000m this outdoor season (not counting her National Cross Country Championship). Interestingly she came back after running a 1500m at the Track Meet in May to pace the first 20 minutes of the 10000m. By doing so, she helped her arch-nemesis and friendly rival, Weini Kelati achieve the World Standard of 31:25 — which is not something you’d ever see in regular sports. Depending on this weekend’s outcome that could come back to bite her.
But speaking of Weini, if you’re looking for someone to root for, Kelati is a good one. Her journey began in Eugene at the 2014 World Junior Championships while competing for Eritrea. She remained in the United States where she sought asylum before eventually continuing her running career as a 2x NCAA Champion at the University of New Mexico. Now as a US citizen, qualifying for the World Championships eight years later in Eugene would complete a perfect circle — and would make great Oscar-bait so long as it kept true to its source material and wasn’t directed by M. Night Shyamalan.
Related: Tune in to the Running Report Show for Molly Huddle’s take on the 10,000m Championship Races
Do you remember seeing pictures of Karissa Schweizer in a boot following an off-season achilles surgery? Forget them. The 10000m Olympian bounced back quickly and ran 15:02 for 5000m to win her only race of the year. Recency bias (for good reason), says that Cranny is the pick, but Schweizer was better last year and has significantly better 1500m and 5000m bests of 4:00.02 and 14:26.
Speaking of medals, have you met Emily Infeld? The 2015 World Championships 10000m bronze medalist is now working with the Verde Track Club and enters the meet with a 15:05 5000m last month. I can’t imagine there is a drop of bad blood between Infeld and her former Bowerman teammates, but if this race was hosted by the WWE it’d make for a good storyline.
If you want a dark horse pick then you wouldn’t be able to find more favorable betting odds than on Hansons’ Natosha Rogers. It’s hard to believe it’s been ten years since she finished second at the Olympic Trials. But this time around she won’t have to worry about not having the standard, as she ran 31:16 earlier this season. However, she looked strong winning the Track Meet’s 5000m in 15:05 closing in 63.
Other athletes with the standard: Ednah Kurgat, Marielle Hall, Sarah Lancaster, Paige Stoner, Danielle Shanahan, Stephanie Bruce and Emily Lipari.
I know we all love rooting for upsets and underdogs, but when you consider this race is about selecting a team to represent the United States, you may want to root hard for those with medal potential. The goal is not to feel good going to sleep on Friday night, but to give THE GREATEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD a fighting chance against a field of women who make sub-30 look casual.
(Here is a fun fact to circle back on my earlier point about supporting meets that are thriving: every single US Women’s 10000m qualifier came from a Sound Running meet.)
Men’s Race
No pressure on Grant Fisher, but as the American Record holder with a personal best of 26:33, he has 31 seconds on the next fastest guy in the field. Except in the picture above he can be seen finishing second at the Olympic Trials behind teammate Woody Kincaid.
The headline to sell newspapers before this bout is Bowerman vs. The World. We are yet to learn if Sean McGorty is finished with the steeplechase experiment, which gave him an 8:20 personal best and a lot of disappointment. The good news is that when you’ve run 13:06 and 27:18, you don’t necessarily NEED to run over barriers. Of all the men who could benefit from this race being held as a separate championship, it is McGorty.
Then there is Lopez Lomong — the former 800m specialist, turned 1500m specialist, turned 5000m specialist, turned 10000m specialist. Unfortunately the 37-year-old dropped out of last year’s Trials with an injury, but he has returned to solid form this year posting a 13:07 and 27:39. He was a double national champion in 2019 and won what was one of the wildest races I ever watched in person. However, Lomong still needs the standard.
So who can break up the four musketeers?
If anyone will, it will likely be the OAC’s Joe Klecker, who finished third at the Olympic Trials. He suffered a rare injury during the winter, but ran enough sub-6 minute miles on “easy days” in Boulder to get back down to 13:04 in the 5000m a few weeks ago.
Other athletes with the standard: Conner Mantz, Emmanuel Bor, Shadrack Kipchirchir and Ben True.
Looking at the forecast for Friday night, we can expect classic Eugene in May weather. It’ll be in the low 50’s with some light rain, making it not the worst conditions to go after a fast time. All of the above mentioned guys have no real impetus to keep things honest the first half, but that’s where Frank Lara steps in.
