“I know in my heart they can make the postseason but it’s going to take a lot of guts on their part and more than a little ingenuity from me.”
I’m gambling on the October Surprise.
Every cross country season has two parts: regular season (first nine weeks) and postseason (final three weeks, leading to the State Championship). I’ve had a pretty good run these past twenty years, making the postseason almost every time with both the boys and girls squads. I love being in Fresno the Saturday after Thanksgiving. The atmosphere is electric, the racing is intense, and I get to see all my coaching buddies. Standing atop the podium is also pretty excellent.
In Southern California, there are two ways to get into the postseason. The first is being ranked in the polls. The second is placing top three in league. This year’s girls team is already ranked, so they’ll get in.
My dilemma is the boys. They’re not ranked and we’re projected to finish fourth in league.
I have been telling them since training began back in June that they won’t put the fear of God in any of their opponents until the end of October. We graduated last year’s entire starting lineup. The top five this year is composed of one senior and four juniors who raced JV last year. From Day One it has been my intent to keep expectations low and goals achievable. I know in my heart they can make the postseason but it’s going to take a lot of guts on their part and more than a little ingenuity from me. Finishing top three in league is our only way to get it done.
That ingenuity means gambling on the peaking portion of our training. I think we have a chance. We’re not a distant fourth. We’re actually pretty close. But rather than peak them for the State Meet as I would in a normal year, we’re peaking for league.
That means championships season workouts right now. There’s no room for error. They’re amazing young men. They like each other. They laugh at my jokes. Most important: they trust me. When I said let’s run 60 miles a week, they didn’t bat an eye. When I said we need a few weeks at 70 to increase aerobic strength, they agreed. Starting next week, the speed workouts will be extremely fast but also short and sharp. Mileage will come down in ten days.
Once we get to the postseason, I need to rejigger the training so we’ll also be strong at State. I have a plan for that, too. One thing at a time.
I love these guys. I owe it to them to go put together the most amazing training plan possible to get them into the postseason. They’ve done the work. Nobody deserves anything in sports. It has to be earned.
I have this crazy suspicion the October Surprise is going to happen.
Martin Dugard is a best-selling author, a board member of the USA Track & Field Foundation and a high school cross country and track coach.
